Weekly Update 03-15-2020:

My mid-week comments sent out last Friday still apply (therefore we are leaving them posted again for this week).  The market closed last Friday about as flat as you can get.  The S&P500 closed at 1149.99, so still refusing to close materially above the 1150 mark.  As I mentioned Friday, today is a potential “reversal day” that has a high probability of reversing on the “day of” or “day following” these “pivot dates”.  So we are still “out to jury” to see what unfolds over the next few days.  The market currently is “Massively Overbought”.  The S&P500 has been up 8 out of 10 days, and advances have led declines 10 days in a row. March S&P futures have been up 10 days in a row, too, which is supposedly a record. These are all signs of a massive short-term overbought condition.  Therefore, we need to give this market some time to re-price itself to reality.  Furthermore, as I mentioned Friday we have registered one of our strongest SELL signals so far this year.  We may see some excessive volatility as this struggle between the bears and the bulls materializes, but the odds currently are that this struggle should resolve itself to the downside.  Therefore, we will maintain our SELL position and keep you posted.  Yours for Safe Sailing in Bull and Bear markets.

Mid-Week Update  03-12-2010:

As a follow-up to Monday’s update, where I talked about a “line in the sand”, the market has crossed that line.  However, the dilemma at this point is somewhat similar in that simultaneously to the market having reached the extent of our “stop loss” provisions; we also have one of the “strongest” SELL signals that we have recorded yet this year!  So I am considering this current situation as one in which you get “stopped out” of a trade, but you immediately re-enter because of the confirmed signal.  Furthermore, Monday the 15^th is a “Reversal” day which has been in excess of 80% reliability and we definitely have a rising market coming into that “reversal” day.  Yesterday was the retest of the January 19^th high for the S&P500 and it closed exactly on the same high as the 19^th at 1150.  If it breaches that high, which it will today, but then holds that high through Monday, then it could be a “successful breakout”, however if not, failed breakouts are one of the most reliable “reversal” patterns.  Reversal days either happen on the day of, which would be Monday or the day following, Tuesday.  So we should know with more certainty where we should be positioned for the longer time frame with these events over the next two days.  Therefore, we are opting to “re-enter” our SELL position and will keep you posted.  Yours for Safe Sailing in Bull and Bear Markets.